Optimizing Strategies for Improving Mental Health in Victoria, Australia during the COVID-19 Era: A System Dynamics Modelling Study.

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the mental health of populations and highlighted the limitations of mental health care systems. As the trajectory of the pandemic and the economic recovery are still uncertain, decision tools are needed to help evaluate the best interventions to improve mental health outcomes. We developed a system dynamics model that captures causal relationships among population, demographics, post-secondary education, health services, COVID-19 impact, and mental health outcomes. The study was conducted in the Australian state of Victoria. The model was calibrated using historical data and was stratified by age group and by geographic remoteness. Findings demonstrate that the most effective intervention combination includes economic, social, and health sector initiatives. Assertive post-suicide attempt care is the most impactful health sector intervention, but delaying implementation reduces the potency of its impact. Some evidence-based interventions, such as population-wide community awareness campaigns, are projected to worsen mental health outcomes when implemented on their own. Systems modelling offers a powerful decision-support tool to test alternative strategies for improving mental health outcomes in the Victorian context.

Which Social, Economic, and Health Sector Strategies Will Deliver the Greatest Impacts for Youth Mental Health and Suicide Prevention? Protocol for an Advanced, Systems Modelling Approach.

Background: Current global challenges are generating extensive social disruption and uncertainty that have the potential to undermine the mental health, wellbeing, and futures of young people. The scale and complexity of challenges call for engagement with systems science-based decision analytic tools that can capture the dynamics and interrelationships between physical, social, economic, and health systems, and support effective national and regional responses. At the outset of the pandemic mental health-related systems models were developed for the Australian context, however, the extent to which findings are generalisable across diverse regions remains unknown. This study aims to explore the context dependency of systems modelling insights. Methods: This study will employ a comparative case study design, applying participatory system dynamics modelling across eight diverse regions of Australia to answer three primary research questions: (i) Will current regional differences in key youth mental health outcomes be exacerbated in forward projections due to the social and economic impacts of COVID-19?; (ii) What combination of social policies and health system strengthening initiatives will deliver the greatest impacts within each region?; (iii) To what extent are optimal strategic responses consistent across the diverse regions? We provide a detailed technical blueprint as a potential springboard for more timely construction and deployment of systems models in international contexts to facilitate a broader examination of the question of generalisability and inform investments in the mental health and wellbeing of young people in the post COVID-19 recovery. Discussion: Computer simulation is known as the third pillar of science (after theory and experiment). Simulation allows researchers and decision makers to move beyond what can be manipulated within the scale, time, and ethical limits of the experimental approach. Such learning when achieved collectively, has the potential to enhance regional self-determination, help move beyond incremental adjustments to the status quo, and catalyze transformational change. This research seeks to advance efforts to establish regional decision support infrastructure and empower communities to effectively respond. In addition, this research seeks to move towards an understanding of the extent to which systems modelling insights may be relevant to the global mental health response by encouraging researchers to use, challenge, and advance the existing work for scientific and societal progress.

The Impact of Physical Distancing Policies During the COVID-19 Pandemic on Health and Well-Being Among Australian Adolescents.

PURPOSE: Physical distancing policies in the state of New South Wales (Australia) were implemented on March 23, 2020, because of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study investigated changes in physical activity, dietary behaviors, and well-being during the early period of this policy. METHODS: A cohort of young people aged 13-19 years from Sydney (N = 582) were prospectively followed for 22 weeks (November 18, 2019, to April 19, 2020). Daily, weekly, and monthly trajectories of diet, physical activity, sedentary behavior, well-being, and psychological distress were collected via smartphone, using a series of ecological momentary assessments and smartphone sensors. Differences in health and well-being outcomes were compared pre- and post-implementation of physical distancing guidelines. RESULTS: After the implementation of physical distancing measures in NSW, there were significant decreases in physical activity (odds ratio [OR] = .53, 95% confidence interval [CI] = .34-.83), increases in social media and Internet use (OR = 1.86, 95% CI = 1.15-3.00), and increased screen time based on participants' smartphone screen state. Physical distancing measures were also associated with being alone in the previous hour (OR = 2.09, 95% CI: 1.33-3.28), decreases in happiness (OR = .38, 95% CI = .18-.82), and fast food consumption (OR = .46, 95% CI = .29-.73). CONCLUSIONS: Physical distancing and social restrictions had a contemporaneous impact on health and well-being outcomes associated with chronic disease among young people. As the pandemic evolves, it will be important to consider how to mitigate against any longer term health impacts of physical distancing restrictions.